Why the Trump Era Isn't Over
In the aftermath of this week’s election, many have declared the Trump Era to be over. Conservative outlets like the New York Post have turned on him in the aftermath of a poor election for Republicans that many are blaming on the extremist candidates he has sponsored. I am currently getting flashbacks to the Republican presidential primary in 2016, when party leaders publicly opposed Trump, the National Review published an anti-Trump issue, and Ted Cruz (of all people) refused to endorse him at the convention, much to the crowd’s consternation.
There are signs of shakiness in the blood pact between Trump and the Republican Party. After the 2016 primary, Trump promised he would push their legislative priorities. The traditional Republican platform, which basically consisted of smacking the public with the hard hand of capitalism while banning gay marriage and abortion, was no longer popular. They could use Trump’s populist support, however, to get their goals accomplished. In return, the Republicans promised to defend Trump from prosecution, no matter how heinous his crimes. Hence their covering for him through various scandals, from Russiagate to shaking down Ukraine to his attempt to overthrow the government on January 6. Even after that crime, which we all saw unfold on television, they refused to call him to account.
There is only one offense the Republican leadership cannot abide, and that is losing power. They were fine with Trump when he was calling Nazis “very fine people,” but losing the Senate because his chosen candidates are as appealing to swing voters as a dogshit and turpentine omellete was unforgivable.
The old alliance might be getting shaky, but wishful thinking alone can’t end the Trump Era. The reason Republicans nominate so many radical extremists is the same as it was before Trump: that’s what their voters want. Before Blake Masters and Herschel Walker there was Todd Akin and Christine O’Donnell. Contrary to another wishful thinking bromide, Trump does not lead the base along like a pied piper. He is in fact the creation of the GOP base, and came to power by speaking in its unfiltered voice.
Anecdotally, I think some rank and file conservatives are ready for the Trump Era to be over. They are dutifully following their marching orders from the Murdoch-owned media to see DeSantis as their new champion. However, Trump’s hardcore following is not going to go away, even if fewer Republicans have his back. As he likes to boast, Trump is a “movement,” not a politician. The Republican Party made a deal with the devil to get that movement into their tent, and now they are going to have to reckon with the consequences.
And here’s another thing: even if the mantle somehow passes smoothly from Trump to DeSantis, it still leaves Trumpism triumphant. DeSantis, Greg Abbott, and other prominent Republicans have recast themselves in his image. Tricking desperate Venezualan asylum seekers so that they can be dumped on Martha’s Vinyard at taxpayer expense in classic Trumpism. Trump’s brand of politics will still persist, even if Trump the person is out of political life.
As I mentioned before, the traditional Republican appeal no longer works like it used to. By weaponizing social divisions around race, immigration, religion, and gender identity instead of spouting the usual supply side snake oil sales pitch, Trump showed how conservatives could draw more votes while still making their base happy. He also showed them the power of shamelessness. Just as Trump committed adultery with a porn star while his wife was pregnant and did not lose evangelical voters, Herschel Walker has garnered the enthusiastic support of those same voters after paying for multiple abortions. Trump has been undermining the democratic process going back to 2016; Republicans have been gerrymandering, ignoring voters’ referendums, and many voted to invalidate the last election, even AFTER their vote was interrupted by the 1/6 insurrection. Republicans are going to continue with the formulas that worked for Trump because it’s all they’ve got.
If Republicans truly want to distance themselves from Trump, they will maintain investigations into his wrongdoing once they control the House, instead of trying to obstruct consequences for his crimes. They could kick him out of their party and not allow him to run in the 2024 primaries due to his past election tampering. But they won’t do any of that. They will simply pretend the Trump Era is over. They may reap a whirlwind that could rip their party apart. Or, just as likely, they will maintain the blood pact with Trump if that’s the option less likely to lose them power. If the Trump Era has taught us anything it’s that power is the only thing that matters to them.